Cleveland Federal Reserve sees slow, steady economic outlook, with a side of uncertainty

The United States' gross domestic product growth is expected to be below average through early 2026 with inflation likely to increase in the near term, according to federal economic data and Blue Chip Economic Indicators from advisory firm Wolters Kluwer.

In Ohio, job growth has not kept pace with the stronger national trend since February 2020 and payroll employment remains below pre-pandemic levels in some metro areas, according to a presentation by Lisa Barrow, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She shared the national and regional data to the Stark Tuscarawas Workforce Development Board during the board's Zoom meeting on July 9.

The Reserve Bank's region covers all of Ohio and parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky.

A slide from the economic outlook presentation by Lisa Barrow, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Barrow said that Ohio employers likely will continue to face challenges because of an aging population that contributes to a labor force growth rate below the nationwide rate. The labor force, defined as people over the age of 16 who are working or seeking work, grew by 3.7% nationwide and 0.9% in Ohio between February 2020 and May 2025 ― with data for the Cleveland-Elyria metro area only extending to December 2024.

A slide from the economic outlook presentation by Lisa Barrow, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

"Uncertainty is unusually high," Barrow added, particularly in reference to trade policy and tariffs.

More than half of the respondents to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland survey expect tariffs to decrease demand and increase input costs and selling prices. As a result, 62% of the regional businesses already have or plan to pass the cost increases on to customers.

A slide from the economic outlook presentation by Lisa Barrow, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

JoAnn Breedlove, executive director of the Workforce Development Board, said the federal bank's newsletters advertised the option for a presentation, for which she extended an invitation to area elected officials.

"As she expressed, things are ever-changing," Breedlove said.

Additional highlights from the economic presentation include:

• The nation's gross domestic product growth was -0.5% in the first quarter of this year, a figure attributed to a surge in imports.

• There was a 4.8% increase in payroll employment nationwide and a 1.7% increase in Ohio between February 2020 and May 2025.

• The Canton-Massillon metro area saw a 0.3% increase in employment for the same period.

• Education and health service careers, followed by construction, saw the greatest year-over-year growth in Ohio.

Reach Kelly at 330-580-8323 or [email protected].

This article originally appeared on The Repository: Cleveland Federal Reserve provides challenging economic outlook