Economists see lower risk of US recession

Economists are a little less gloomy about the possible fallout from US President Donald Trump’s trade and economic policies than they were three months ago, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.

Economists expect cooler inflation, stronger growth, and a lower risk of a recession this year, but they remain relatively downbeat, with the latest GDP growth prediction still half of what was expected in January.

12-month percent change of US consumer price index chart

“Despite numerous headwinds, the U.S. economy is proving stubbornly resilient,” one economist said, adding that “the mood has clearly shifted from bold to careful.”

The slightly more optimistic outlook comes as the US Treasury on Friday reported collecting more than $100 billion in customs duties in June.

— Claire Cameron