Will Justin Bieber Land a No. 1 Debut With ‘Swag?’

Justin Bieber’s Swag, the superstar’s first album in over four years, is on track for a solid opening week as the album is taking over the daily charts on Spotify and Apple Music this weekend.

Sources familiar with the matter tell The Hollywood Reporter that the projections for the album — his seventh full-length — are estimated at about 150,000 to 160,000 album equivalent units for week one, while Hits magazine is projecting 175,000 units.

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Those estimates would yield a respectable debut, particularly given that Swag’s week one numbers likely won’t include any physical sales. Justice, Bieber’s next-most-recent album, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard chart back in 2021 with 154,000 equivalent units, including 30,000 physical sales.

Current estimates could also keep Bieber competitive for a No. 1 debut on Billboard’s 200 Albums chart, where Morgan Wallen has dominated the past two months; the country singer is projected to move more than 150,000 units this week. All of Bieber’s six previous albums have topped the chart in their opening weeks.

Bieber also elected to surprise-release Swag instead of sharing any singles in advance, teasing the drop on Thursday (July 10) with billboards popping up around the globe.

Aside from Wallen’s I’m the Problem, Swag faces steep competition from Clipse — who released their first album in over 15 years this week with Let God Sort ‘Em Out — and from Travis Scott, who dropped JackBoys 2 on Sunday. Scott, in particular, is a perennial chart monster, with 2023’s Utopia debuting with nearly 500,000 units.

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The day after its July 11 release, Bieber had taken the top seven slots on Spotify’s U.S. chart, with standout “Daisies,” featuring production and writing by Gen Z darling Mk.gee, landing at No. 1 with more than 8.5 million streams. As of this story’s publication, “Daisies” remains the top song on Spotify’s chart, and Bieber holds five of the top 10 slots on the Spotify chart. “All I Can Take,” meanwhile, topped Apple Music’s US chart, where Bieber took eight of the top 10 spots overall.

Swag comes at a time of massive upheaval in Bieber’s life. Since the Justice era, he’d faced health issues, canceled a tour, sold his publishing catalog, had a child and notably split fromScooter Braun, his longtime manager. The two recently reconciled their remaining financial issues, with Bieber paying $31 million to settle a debt he owed Braun following the cancellation of his Justice tour, along with unpaid commissions.

The Hollywood Reporter reported in April that Bieber had assembled a new team and was readying the next chapter of his professional career.

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